In recent months, the pandemic-hot housing market has finally cooled down. Thanks to the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation action, mortgage rates have more than doubled from their 2021 all-time lows. As a result, home sales slowed sharply, and prices began to decline. However, housing markets in some parts of the country tend to be less stable and more subject to volatility than in others.
Until the recent dip, the median home price in the US has risen almost steadily since 2012, when prices bottomed out after the 2008 Great Recession and Housing Crisis. House prices began to rise at a faster pace in the second half of 2020. due to a combination of factors including increased housing demand, limited supply of new homes and expectations about future home prices.
In March 2022, the Federal Reserve launched a series of interest rate hikes to tamp down inflation, and by the summer, the average home price began to stabilize. However, high interest rates have made buying a home more costly, especially in cities where home prices have risen the most in the last few years. As potential buyers weigh their options in this market, it’s helpful to consider how different locations have historically evolved during periods of volatility.
Housing markets in some cities are particularly susceptible to price fluctuations. Atlantic City is one such housing market that has proven to be more volatile than others. The median home price in Atlantic City topped $300,000 in 2007 before it crashed to a low of $174,544 in 2017. Then home prices began to recover and have risen sharply over the past two years. By comparison, Pittsburgh’s housing market has been much more stable. Pittsburgh’s home prices remained relatively flat during the housing crisis and subsequent recession in 2008, and post-pandemic home price increases have been more subdued than in many other parts of the US.
At the state level, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Alaska have the most stable housing markets, as measured by the likelihood that a buyer purchasing a home at any time between 2000 and now would experience a price drop of more than 5% after purchase. All three of these conditions had a 0% chance of doing so. In contrast, the probability of a price drop of at least 5% between 2000 and the present is 50.2% in Nevada and 49.8% in Georgia.
To identify the locations with the most stable housing market, Construction Coverage researchers analyzed the latest Zillow data. The researchers ranked states according to the likelihood of a casual shopper experiencing a price drop of at least 5%, using data from 2000 to the present. For each location, the researchers also calculated the biggest price drop from 2000 to present, the current median home price, and the percentage change in home price from 2000 to present.
Here is a summary of data for Texas:
- Probability of a 5% drop in prices (2000 to present): 9.5%
- Biggest price drop (2000-present): $12,595
- Average house price (currently): $315,847
- Percent change in house price (2000 to present): 176%
For reference, here are the statistics for the entire United States:
- Probability of a 5% drop in prices (2000 to present): 29.7%
- Biggest price drop (2000-present): $53,738
- Average house price (currently): $357,589
- Percent change in house price (2000 to present): 179%
For more information, detailed methodology, and full results, you can find the original report on the Construction Coverage website: https://constructioncoverage.com/research/the-most-stable-housing-markets-2023.