GOP IMMIGRATION NIGHTMARE: As we inch closer and closer to the 2014 elections, the Republican Party is faced with a dilemma — immigration. This will also play out in the 2016 presidential elections, where demographics won’t be on their side, once again. The immigration reform put forward by Republicans is troubling and the rumblings of a schism in the party are getting louder and louder. The outcome will be far worst politically, even if the bill is defeated. The mother of all right wing backlashes will result that will take the more friendly Republicans with the party.
“We are really balanced here on a little precipice and if this, pardon the pun, goes south, we could be in very serious trouble,” said Republican media strategist Paul Wilson, citing the increasingly intense attacks on the immigration bill coming from the right. “If [the legislation] stalls or is killed off by conservatives, we could take the Hispanic community and turn them into the African-American community, where we get four percent on a good day… We could be a lost party for generations.”
Establishment Republicans don’t have to reach too far back in recent history to find precedent for this political nightmare scenario: It would look a lot like the last time Congress pursued comprehensive immigration legislation. Source
The Republicans should also take a look at the last presidential election, in which all the voter suppression tactics employed in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania backfired. The massive black voter turnout was clearly not what they hoped for, but it helped President Obama win a second term. Hispanics, Asians, women and gays also helped Obama’s reelection.
The conservative backlash provoked a new militancy among immigrants, as well: advocates for the undocumented began holding massive counter-protests in Los Angeles, Dallas, and other cities with large Latino populations.
But the conservative campaign to kill the immigration bill in Washington ultimately succeeded — at a high electoral cost. Whereas exit polls in 2004 showed Bush receiving upwards of 40% of the Latino vote, that figure plummeted to about 31% for John McCain in 2008, and 27% for Mitt Romney last year. The reasons for the Hispanic exodus are complex and varied, but few Republican strategists these days will argue with the notion that the 2007 culture war on immigration reform stained the party’s brand.
Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Rick Perry truly believe Texas won’t go blue. If immigration reform fails, think again. That could be a very real possibility. The Republicans should realize, President Obama won’t be blamed for the demise of immigration reform — they will. The GOP immigration nightmare is taking shape already….
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