The battle of the polls — The New York Times says the U.S. has a 63 percent chance of advancing to the Round of 16 at the World Cup, while FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver ups that number to 76 percent. So, who is right?
NY Times: United States advances with a tie or win against Germany. If the United States loses, it will be rooting for anything but a Ghana win in the Ghana-Portugal match — because Ghana is in a better tiebreaker position than Portugal. The United States, regardless of what it does, advances with a tie between Ghana and Portugal; if Portugal wins, Portugal is likely to lose the tiebreaker to the United States, whereas Ghana has a decent chance to win the tiebreaker over the United States. The United States wins the group with a win over Germany.
FiveThirtyEight: #USA has a 76 percent chance of reaching round of 16, 37 percent to the quarterfinals, 13 percent to the semifinals, four percent to the finals and a one percent chance of winning the World Cup.