The Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (15-3) face off Sunday in the AFC Championship Game with kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium set for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we break down the Tipico Sportsbook lines around the Bengals versus Chiefs chanceand make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
This will be the second consecutive season that the Bengals and Chiefs meet in the AFC Championship Game in Kansas City. Cincinnati won last year’s AFC title game in overtime 27-24 as a 7-point underdog. The Bengals are 3-0 overall against the Chiefs with Joe Butter to QB – winning all 3 as underdogs in the 3 matchups that occurred in calendar year 2022.
Cincinnati beat the Buffalo Bills 27-10 last week as a 6-point underdog. The Bengals have won 10 in a row, going 8-1-1 against the spread (ATS). The Chiefs beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 last week, failing to cover the 10 point favorites. The Chiefs have won 6 straight, but are 2-4 ATS during that stretch.
Outside of the nascent Bengals vs Chiefs rivalry, the biggest storyline in this game is the health of the Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high ankle sprain against the Jaguars. He participated fully in training this week and it is confirmed that he will play on Sunday.
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Bengals versus Chiefs
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access the USA TODAY sports scores and sports betting odds hub for a complete list. The lines were last updated on Saturday at 11:10 PM ET.
- Money Line (ML): Bengals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Chiefs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bengalis +2 (-110) | Chiefs -2 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48 (F: -108 | F: -112)
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Bengals to Chiefs key injuries
Bengali
- O.G Alex Kappa (ankle) out
- OT Jonah Williams (knee) out
Chiefs
- YOU Travis Kelce (back) questionable
- wr Mécole Hardman (pelvis) questionable
- wr Justin Watson (disease) questionable
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Bengals to Chiefs Picks and Predictions
Prediction
Chiefs 31, Bengalis 27
Money line
When these teams last met in Week 13, the Chiefs were missing LG Joe Thuney — PFF’s top offensive lineman for pass blocking — while Kelce committed an uncharacteristic fumble and kicker Harrison Butker missed a crucial field goal in the 4th quarter.
This time around, the Chiefs have a healthy offensive line while the Bengals are missing 2 starting offensive linemen. The Chiefs also appeared to be cleaning up their turnover and kicking issues: They’ve committed just 1 offensive turnover in their last 4 games, while Butker hasn’t missed a kick since Week 15 (although 1 has been blocked due to poor protection).
Even with a less healthy Mahomes, the Chiefs should finally take care of business against Cincinnati at home in this grudge game.
THIN LEADS (-125).
Against the spread
No need to bet the spread as the money line pays almost the same. This could easily end up in a 1-point contest, so it’s best to pick a winner and stick to it.
TO AVOID the spread and bet on the moneyline instead.
Above under
In the last 3 games between the Bengals and Chiefs, the total points have been 65, 51 and 51.
Even with Mahomes not at full strength, he was able to lead the Chiefs to victory last week, and it’s not the first time in his career that he’s worked through an injury. The Bengals, meanwhile, have amassed at least 27 points on the Chiefs every time they have faced them. Barring a surprising defensive effort this should hit the over.
FOLD UP 48 (-112).
Bonus props
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase ANY TD (-105)
Chase has 11 TDs in 14 games this season, including 5 TDs in his last 6 games. He also has 1 touchdown in each of the Bengals’ postseason victories this year. Chase didn’t score a touchdown against the Chiefs earlier this season, but had 7 receptions and 97 yards. The Chiefs generally have trouble containing Chase, who has 417 yards and 4 TDs against them in 3 games. Expect Burrow to find Chase in the end zone at least once this Sunday.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce ANY TIME TDs (-110)
Kelce has 14 touchdowns in 18 games this season. He’s had a streak since weeks 13-18, but last week he had 2 touchdowns against the Jaguars. Kelce was a star during his playoff career, hitting 14 TDs in 16 career playoff games, including at least 1 TD in 7 of his last 8 playoff games. Kelce had 95 yards and 1 TD against Cincinnati in last year’s AFC Championship Game. Mahomes will again lean on Kelce in this bout.
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