The bottom line
Even though the New Jersey weather forecast is mostly dry through early next week (Monday through Tuesday), we still face severe weather conditions. Thursday big partial heating. Followed by a big stormy cooling on Friday.
This weekend will go from a cold Saturday to a warmer and more comfortable Sunday.
The next storm system early next week is worth watching for potential winter weather in North Jersey (at least).
Thursday
It’s a typical “Tale of Two Jerseys” day, with wildly different temperatures from one end of the state to the other. The warm air bubbling in from the south will fight off the cold air to the north. This means that one end of the state will be 30 degrees hotter than the other.
In general, expect the cooler 40s and 50s in North Jersey and along the Jersey Shore. Thermometers will enter the warmer 60s and 70s in the South and West.
Honestly, the exact details of this temperature prediction are wild guesses. Could North Jersey get stuck closer to 40 degrees? Safe. 80 is in play southwest? Yes, it’s on the table.
There are some cool puddles on the ground to start your day, after some late night hours. And light fog is pushing visibility up to a mile. But the rest of the day should be clear and dry. Skies should range from partially sunny (in the “cool” area) to mostly sunny (in the “warm” area).
At sunset, temperatures will drop to around 50 degrees and stay there throughout the night. A shower or two could sweep across northern New Jersey as a cold front approaches New Jersey. I’m also concerned that a thick fog might develop, due to the heat and humidity in the air.
Friday
It’s another cold day. You know the drill by now. When you hear about a cold front in the forecast, you should immediately think of three things: Cold, Wind, Precipitation.
The first two will be absolutely true. But rainfall will be minimal.
Temperatures will drop into the 30s by late Friday afternoon. Wind gusts can reach 40 mph. The skies will clear. But it will be a windy day, not a beautiful one.
The thermometers will continue to drop on Friday evening, finishing around 20 degrees by Saturday morning. I believe the winds will ease considerably after dark. But a little breeze will still be enough for the icy wind to bite the teenagers.
Saturday
A cold February day. With two light storms straddling New Jersey to the north and south. It will be enough to fill the cloud cover again, let’s call it mostly cloud. And we may see a snow shower at some point during the day.
Saturday’s highs will only reach the mid-30s. This is actually below normal for the end of February. And downright cold, especially with very limited sunshine.
Sunday
Sunday will be the best day of the weekend, as the temperatures will once again be mild. The latest indications suggest that the highs will peak around 50 degrees, under partly sunny skies. It’s not bad at all.
Monday and beyond
Our next storm system is expected to arrive Monday afternoon, through Tuesday morning. It’s possible for up to an inch of rain – a soak we desperately need, after a very dry February so far.
However, this looks interesting. For the first time in a long time, the 5-day forecast contains a legitimate accumulation possibility. But only in North Jersey. And it will probably lean more towards sloppy winter mix than straight snow.
I highly recommend keeping an eye on the latest forecast throughout the weekend as we get better resolution on whether this situation remains wintery or shift changes.
Beyond that, I don’t see any extreme heat or cold in early March. Temperatures should be seasonal for much of next week, mainly around 40 degrees.
NJ WEATHER CENTER: Your 5-day forecast and more
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Chirping for the latest forecasts and real-time weather updates.
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