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Baylor-Kansas state forecast, pick, how to look

The Baylor Bears No. 9 (20-7) visit Kansas State Wildcats no. 14 (20-7) Tuesday evening! Action Tips at 7:00 PM ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with a prediction, a pick, and how to watch Baylor-Kansas State.

Baylor is coming off a shocking second-half slump against Kansas but had previously won 10 of their last 11 games. Baylor sits at 9-5 and in third place in the Big 12. The Bears covered 54% of their games, while 52% exceeding their target point total. Kansas State is coming off a home win over Iowa State to sit at 8-6 and in fourth place in the Big 12. The Wildcats covered 67% of their games while 52% went over. This will be the second meeting of the season between the conference foes. Kansas State won an overtime thriller 97-95 in the first meeting.

Here are the Baylor-Kansas State College basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College Basketball Odds: Baylor-Kansas State Odds

Baylor: -1.5 (-118)

Kansas State: +1.5 (-104)

Over: 148.5 (-110)

Below: 148.5 (-110)

Like watching Baylor vs. Kansas State


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Because Baylor could cover the spread

Aside from a three-game skid in early 2023, Baylor has been the usual dominant team they’ve come to fame with. The Bears topped their non-conference roster with an 11-2 record. They earned a key win over Gonzaga, while both non-conference losses landed current Top 10 teams. That success translated into Big 12 play. After starting 0-3 in the conference, Baylor fought back and lost just two games in their last 12 tries. As a result, Baylor fares well within the advanced rankings as it sits at no. 14 in KenPom and at no. 12 on the NET. This is largely due to their perfect 11-0 record outside of Quad 1. Additionally, Baylor’s nine Quad 1 wins rank second in the country. With that, Baylor currently projects as the No. 1 seed. 2 in the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor is led by their strong offense as they rank 25th nationally with 78.5 PPG. The Bears do a good job moving the ball and finding open shooters as they rank 41st with 14.9 APG and 16th with 9.4 threes per game. Additionally, Baylor is a lethal offensive rebounding team, ranked 20th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. That could make all the difference tonight considering Kansas State has struggled to secure defensive rebounds.

Baylor features a triage of talented guards who can take over and bring them in to cover games. Lottery future Keyonte George leads the team with 16.6 PPG and notably lost 22 to Kansas State earlier in the year. Senior point guard Adam Flagler was also strong against the Wildcats in their last game where he scored 23 points and dished out seven assists. He ranks second on the team with 16.0 PPG in addition to 5.0 APG, fourth-highest in the Big 12. Lastly, junior LJ Cryer averages 14.9 PPG and serves as the de facto sharpshooter with 2.6 threes per player with a clip of the 43%.

Because the state of Kansas could cover the spread

Kansas State has been the most surprising team in the Big 12 this season. After being picked almost unanimously to finish last in the conference, the Wildcats find themselves in fourth place with only four games remaining. Kansas State starts the season red hot by going 12-1 in non-conference play. They had notable victories over Nevada, LSU, and Wichita State, though a double-digit loss to Butler raised questions about how they would fare within the Big 12. They started a resounding 6-1 in the conference, but since he has since lost five of his last seven games. However, Kansas State has solid underlying metrics. The Wildcats slip to No. 24 in KenPom and No. 20 in NET. They went 13-1 outside of Quad 1s and won seven Quad 1s. As a result, Kansas State currently projects as the No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Kansas State is a well-balanced team that starts things off offensively first. The Wildcats average 75.4 PPG – 64th nationally. They are one of the best passing teams in the country, ranked 10th with 16.7 APG. While Kansas State doesn’t pose much of a threat from deep inside, they relentlessly attack the rim while hitting the 16th most free throws per game. Additionally, the Wildcats could benefit from Baylor’s carelessness with the ball as they rank 39th in force turnover rate.

Kansas State is led by the dynamic duo of Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. Johnson ranks second in the Big 12 in scoring with 17.4 PPG and rebounding with 7.4. He was very effective in their previous win over Baylor, scoring 24 points and pulling down nine rebounds. Nowell is right up there with him as he averages the fourth most points in the conference at 16.9 PPG and the most assists at 7.5 APG. Nowell recorded arguably the best game of his career the last time these teams met as he scored 32 points and dished out 14 assists.

Prediction and final choice Baylor-Kansas State

After Saturday’s second half slump, I like Baylor to rebound and take revenge on Kansas State after their early season loss.

Prediction and final pick Baylor-Kansas State: Baylor -1.5 (-118)

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